1.Read Jansen et al 2003
Explain the concept of herd-immunity.
Why are these researchers calculating R?
What happens if there is a decline in vaccine coverage?
2.Read Woolhouse et al 2001
This paper focuses on calculating the case reproduction ratio for fmd (in the lectures we called this the observed or effective reproduction ratio)
Why is R being calculated?
Why might R drop during the course of an outbreak?
3.Read Matthews & Woolhouse 2005
Explain the difference between a stochastic and a deterministic model?
Explain when and why you might use a stochastic rather than a deterministic model?
Read the sections on fmd and SARS. How might an understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission process influence control measures?
4.Read Lipsitch et al 2003
How do R0 and R relate in the absence of control measures?
What causes R to decline?
What is required to control an outbreak?
5.Read Riley et al 2003
What was a SSE? What effect have these had on the SARS outbreak?
By referring to the authors expression for RtXSS, explain how control measures act to limit transmission.
6.Read Bemrah et al 1998
Why is Latin hypercube sampling used?
Look at Table 1: Give a brief justification for the uses of the Poisson, Beta and Bernoulli distributions in this model.
Look at Table 2: why are triangular distributions used?
Look at figure 4 and read the discussion. Why might this study overestimate the overall population risks from eating raw milk cheeses?